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Class D2 bubble watch: Fullerton and South Loup are tied on the line, and SRC-Aquinas swings it
The Class D2 wild-card line, why Shelby-Rising City at Aquinas matters to the bubble and what each team needs.
The last Class D2 wild card is a tie. Fullerton and South Loup are both 4-4 with 38.125 points, at No. 10 and No. 11 among the wild-card teams, and NSAA's tiebreaker would have to sort it out if the season ended today. D2 takes six district champions and 10 wild cards, and a dozen teams sit between 39.875 and 36.375.
The game that matters most to the bubble isn't a bubble game. It's unbeaten Shelby-Rising City at Aquinas Catholic on Friday.
Data as of 7:59 a.m. CT Wednesday, Oct. 21, from NSAA's wildcard page. Points haven't changed since the Oct. 19 update. Ranges below run every Week 9 result through NSAA's point formula. They're NEB Preps projections, not official.
Class D2 bubble board
NSAA points · 7:59 a.m. CT Wednesday, Oct. 21 (NSAA wildcard page; points unchanged since the Oct. 19 9:04 a.m. update). Projection—not official seeds.
Current last at-large average: 38.125 · Fullerton. Dashed marks compare current averages, not guaranteed qualification. District berths and tiebreakers still apply.
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Open a school for its remaining game and reviewed scenario. Each what-if fixes only one game; all other results can vary. Ranges are not rankings or clinch probabilities. Ties remain ties.
Hemingford6-2 · Bubble41.375 ptsClinches with a win over Hi-Line.
2026-10-23 · vs. Hi-Line (2-6). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 41.333–42.333. With a loss: 40.111–41.111.
Aquinas Catholic6-2 · In40.875 ptsBerth already clinched; Week 9 decides seeding.
2026-10-23 · vs. Shelby-Rising City (8-0). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 42.222–43.556. With a loss: 40.667–42.000.
Qualification evidence: wildcard math: lowest possible final average 40.6667; only 9 other wildcard-eligible teams can reach that (Shelby-Rising City, Laurel-Concord-Coleridge, Lourdes Central Catholic, Howells-Dodge, East Butler, Hemingford, Wilcox-Hildreth, Hitchcock County, Bertrand) and there are 10 wildcard spots
Wilcox-Hildreth5-3 · Bubble39.875 ptsClinches with a win if Madison beats Ainsworth or Shelby-Rising City beats Aquinas Catholic.
2026-10-22 · vs. South Loup (4-4). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 40.333–41.333. With a loss: 39.111–40.111.
Hitchcock County5-3 · Bubble39.750 ptsClinches with a win if Madison beats Ainsworth or Shelby-Rising City beats Aquinas Catholic.
2026-10-23 · vs. Maywood-Hayes Center (3-5). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 40.556–41.222. With a loss: 39.000–39.667.
Neligh-Oakdale6-2 · Bubble39.375 ptsClinches with a win if Shelby-Rising City beats Aquinas Catholic or Franklin beats Bertrand.
2026-10-22 · at Bloomfield (3-5). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 40.222–40.556. With a loss: 38.667–39.000.
Bertrand5-3 · Bubble39.125 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 39.3333-40.6667 with a win.
2026-10-22 · vs. Franklin (1-7). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 39.333–40.667. With a loss: 37.778–39.111.
BDS5-3 · Bubble38.875 ptsClinches with a win over Superior.
2026-10-23 · at Superior (4-4). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 39.778–40.111. With a loss: 38.556–38.889.
Fullerton4-4 · Bubble38.125 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 38.4444-39.1111 with a win. Out with a loss if Shelby-Rising City beats Aquinas Catholic.
2026-10-23 · at Kenesaw (2-6). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 38.444–39.111. With a loss: 37.222–37.889.
South Loup4-4 · Bubble38.125 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 39.4444-39.7778 with a win.
2026-10-22 · at Wilcox-Hildreth (5-3). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 39.444–39.778. With a loss: 37.889–38.222.
Bloomfield3-5 · Bubble37.750 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 39.1111-39.4444 with a win.
2026-10-22 · vs. Neligh-Oakdale (6-2). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 39.111–39.444. With a loss: 37.889–38.222.
Tri County Northeast (TCNE)4-4 · Bubble37.625 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 38.3333 with a win. Out with a loss if Shelby-Rising City beats Aquinas Catholic or Arapahoe beats Loomis.
2026-10-23 · vs. Lyons-Decatur Northeast (2-6). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 38.333–38.333. With a loss: 37.111–37.111.
Arapahoe4-4 · Bubble37.000 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 38.4444-39.1111 with a win. Out with a loss if Shelby-Rising City beats Aquinas Catholic or Lourdes Central Catholic beats East Butler.
2026-10-22 · at Loomis (8-0). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 38.444–39.111. With a loss: 36.889–37.556.
Superior4-4 · Bubble36.875 ptsClinches with a win if Kenesaw beats Fullerton. Out with a loss to BDS.
2026-10-23 · vs. BDS (5-3). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 38.333–39.000. With a loss: 36.778–37.444.
Maywood-Hayes Center3-5 · Bubble36.375 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 37.8889-38.2222 with a win. Out with a loss to Hitchcock County.
2026-10-23 · at Hitchcock County (5-3). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 37.889–38.222. With a loss: 36.333–36.667.
View the three-column points table
| Team | Record | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Hemingford | 6-2 | 41.375 |
| Aquinas Catholic | 6-2 | 40.875 |
| Wilcox-Hildreth | 5-3 | 39.875 |
| Hitchcock County | 5-3 | 39.750 |
| Neligh-Oakdale | 6-2 | 39.375 |
| Bertrand | 5-3 | 39.125 |
| BDS | 5-3 | 38.875 |
| Fullerton | 4-4 | 38.125 |
| South Loup | 4-4 | 38.125 |
| Bloomfield | 3-5 | 37.750 |
| Tri County Northeast (TCNE) | 4-4 | 37.625 |
| Arapahoe | 4-4 | 37.000 |
| Superior | 4-4 | 36.875 |
| Maywood-Hayes Center | 3-5 | 36.375 |
Why everyone's watching SRC-Aquinas
Both teams are already in. A Shelby-Rising City win gives it the D2-1 title. An Aquinas win could take the title instead and push Shelby-Rising City into the wild-card pool, which would cost the bubble a seat. A Shelby-Rising City win helps clinch spots for Wilcox-Hildreth, Hitchcock County and Neligh-Oakdale if they win, and it knocks out Fullerton, Tri County Northeast and Arapahoe if they lose.
Win and you're in
Hemingford (6-2, 41.375) clinches with a win over Hi-Line. It also clinches if South Loup beats Wilcox-Hildreth. BDS (5-3, 38.875) clinches the D2-4 title and a spot with a win at Superior.
Win and get help
Wilcox-Hildreth (5-3, 39.875) vs. South Loup and Hitchcock County (5-3, 39.750) vs. Maywood-Hayes Center each clinch with a win if Shelby-Rising City wins or Madison beats Ainsworth. Neligh-Oakdale (6-2, 39.375) clinches with a win at Bloomfield on Thursday if Shelby-Rising City wins or Franklin beats Bertrand. Bertrand (5-3, 39.125) hosts Franklin and can reach 40.667 with a win, but it can't clinch.
On the line
Fullerton (4-4, 38.125) visits Kenesaw (2-6). A loss knocks it out if Shelby-Rising City wins. South Loup (4-4, 38.125) visits Wilcox-Hildreth on Thursday. A win gets it to 39.444 to 39.778.
Just outside
Superior (4-4, 36.875) is out with a loss to BDS. With a win, it clinches if Kenesaw also beats Fullerton. Bloomfield (3-5, 37.750) could reach 39.444 by beating Neligh-Oakdale. Tri County Northeast (4-4, 37.625) would finish at exactly 38.333 with a win over Lyons-Decatur Northeast. Arapahoe (4-4, 37.000) visits unbeaten Loomis. Maywood-Hayes Center (3-5, 36.375) is out with a loss at Hitchcock County.
How the math works
A win is worth 50, 47, 44 or 41 points depending on the opponent's division, and a loss is worth 36, 33, 30 or 27. Take Wilcox-Hildreth: 39.875 over eight games is 319 points. Beat South Loup and South Loup is 4-5 (44%, Division 3), so the win is worth 44, and 363 divided by 9 is 40.333. Lose and South Loup is 5-4 (56%, Division 2), so the loss is worth 33, and 352 divided by 9 is 39.111.
District races and the projected bracket are in the Class D2 playoff outlook.
Sources
Hemingford team center → · Aquinas Catholic team center → · Wilcox-Hildreth team center → · Hitchcock County team center → · Neligh-Oakdale team center → · Bertrand team center → · BDS team center → · Fullerton team center → · South Loup team center → · Bloomfield team center → · Tri County Northeast (TCNE) team center → · Arapahoe team center → · Superior team center → · Maywood-Hayes Center team center →
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