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Class A bubble watch: Lincoln Northeast is in, and five teams need a Week 9 win to stay alive
Who's just inside and just outside the 16-team Class A field, what each needs in Week 9 and the math behind it.
Sixteen Class A teams make the field, and the line sits at 38.875 points. That's Lincoln Standing Bear's number at No. 16. With one game left, 11 teams sit between 40.000 and 37.500. Six are bunched between 40.000 and the line, and the five chasing them all play this week with their seasons on it.
Lincoln Northeast is not one of them anymore. Lincoln Northeast (7-1, 41.125, No. 8) have clinched, as 10/11 NOW reported early Wednesday, and NSAA's points back it up. Their worst possible final average is 39.889, and only 15 other teams can reach that, so they're in. A Week 9 game with Lincoln Northwest only moves their seed, somewhere from No. 5 to No. 15.
Data as of 7:59 a.m. CT Wednesday, Oct. 21, from NSAA's wildcard page. Points haven't changed since the Oct. 19 update. Ranges below run every Week 9 result through NSAA's point formula. They're NEB Preps projections, not official.
Class A bubble board
NSAA points · 7:59 a.m. CT Wednesday, Oct. 21 (NSAA wildcard page; points unchanged since the Oct. 19 9:04 a.m. update). Projection—not official seeds.
Current last at-large average: 38.875 · Lincoln Standing Bear. Dashed marks compare current averages, not guaranteed qualification. District berths and tiebreakers still apply.
All schools shown. JavaScript enables the optional search and one-game controls.
Open a school for its remaining game and reviewed scenario. Each what-if fixes only one game; all other results can vary. Ranges are not rankings or clinch probabilities. Ties remain ties.
Creighton Preparatory School4-4 · Bubble40.000 ptsClinches with a win over Bellevue West.
2026-10-22 · at Bellevue West (4-4). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 40.444–40.778. With a loss: 39.222–39.556.
Millard West4-4 · Bubble40.000 ptsClinches with a win over Papillion-La Vista South.
2026-10-22 · vs. Papillion-La Vista South (6-2). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 40.778–41.444. With a loss: 39.556–40.222.
Kearney5-3 · Bubble39.875 ptsClinches with a win over Grand Island.
2026-10-23 · at Grand Island (1-7). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 40.000–41.000. With a loss: 38.444–39.444.
Lincoln North Star5-3 · Bubble39.500 ptsClinches with a win over Lincoln Southwest.
2026-10-22 · at Lincoln Southwest (5-3). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 40.333–41.000. With a loss: 38.778–39.444.
Lincoln Southwest5-3 · Bubble39.125 ptsClinches with a win over Lincoln North Star.
2026-10-22 · vs. Lincoln North Star (5-3). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 40.000–41.000. With a loss: 38.444–39.444.
Lincoln Standing Bear4-4 · Bubble38.875 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 39.4444-39.7778 with a win. Out with a loss to Bellevue East.
2026-10-22 · at Bellevue East (3-5). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 39.444–39.778. With a loss: 37.889–38.222.
Bellevue West4-4 · Bubble38.125 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 38.7778-39.7778 with a win. Out with a loss if Lincoln Standing Bear beats Bellevue East or Lincoln Southeast beats Lincoln East.
2026-10-22 · vs. Creighton Preparatory School (4-4). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 38.778–39.778. With a loss: 37.556–38.556.
Lincoln Southeast4-4 · Bubble38.125 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 38.7778-39.1111 with a win. Out with a loss to Lincoln East.
2026-10-23 · vs. Lincoln East (0-8). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 38.778–39.111. With a loss: 37.222–37.556.
North Platte5-3 · Bubble38.000 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 38.6667-39.6667 with a win. Out with a loss to Columbus.
2026-10-23 · vs. Columbus (4-4). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 38.667–39.667. With a loss: 37.444–38.444.
Columbus4-4 · Bubble37.750 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 38.7778-40.4444 with a win.
2026-10-23 · at North Platte (5-3). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 38.778–40.444. With a loss: 37.222–38.889.
Omaha Westview3-5 · Bubble37.500 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 38.8889-39.5556 with a win. Out with a loss if Lincoln Standing Bear beats Bellevue East or Bellevue West beats Creighton Preparatory School.
2026-10-23 · vs. Omaha North (7-1). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 38.889–39.556. With a loss: 37.333–38.000.
Fremont2-6 · Out35.750 ptsEliminated. Cannot reach the last spot in any Week 9 outcome.
2026-10-23 · at Omaha Burke (3-5). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 36.667–37.333. With a loss: 35.111–35.778.
Qualification evidence: highest possible final average 37.3333; at least 16 teams without an auto-bid route are guaranteed to finish above it (e.g. Lincoln Standing Bear, Bellevue West, North Platte)
View the three-column points table
| Team | Record | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Creighton Preparatory School | 4-4 | 40.000 |
| Millard West | 4-4 | 40.000 |
| Kearney | 5-3 | 39.875 |
| Lincoln North Star | 5-3 | 39.500 |
| Lincoln Southwest | 5-3 | 39.125 |
| Lincoln Standing Bear | 4-4 | 38.875 |
| Bellevue West | 4-4 | 38.125 |
| Lincoln Southeast | 4-4 | 38.125 |
| North Platte | 5-3 | 38.000 |
| Columbus | 4-4 | 37.750 |
| Omaha Westview | 3-5 | 37.500 |
| Fremont | 2-6 | 35.750 |
Just inside: win and you're in
Creighton Prep (4-4, 40.000, T-11) clinches with a win at Bellevue West on Thursday. Kearney (5-3, 39.875, No. 13) clinches with a win at Grand Island (1-7, 33.625). Millard West (4-4, 40.000, T-11) clinches by beating Papillion-La Vista South (42.375) on Thursday. Millard West can also get in without winning: it clinches if Lincoln Southeast beats Lincoln East or if Papillion-La Vista beats Norfolk.
Lincoln North Star (5-3, 39.500) at Lincoln Southwest (5-3, 39.125) on Thursday is the cleanest bubble game in the state. Whoever wins clinches. A North Star win puts it at 40.333 to 41.000. The loser drops to roughly 38.4 to 39.4, right on the line.
On the line: Lincoln Standing Bear
The No. 16 team is out with a loss at Bellevue East (3-5) on Thursday. A win lifts it to 39.444 to 39.778, but even that isn't a lock, because the teams below can climb past it.
Just outside: win and get help
Bellevue West (4-4, 38.125) hosts Creighton Prep. A win gets it to 38.778 to 39.778. A loss knocks it out if Standing Bear wins or Lincoln Southeast wins.
Lincoln Southeast (4-4, 38.125) is out with a loss to winless Lincoln East. A win gets it to 38.778 to 39.111.
North Platte (5-3, 38.000) vs. Columbus (4-4, 37.750) on Friday is an elimination game for North Platte, which is out with a loss. Columbus has the biggest upside on the board, 38.778 to 40.444 with a win.
Omaha Westview (3-5, 37.500) needs to beat Omaha North (7-1). A loss knocks it out if Standing Bear wins or Bellevue West wins. Fremont (35.750) is already out.
How the math works
A win is worth 50, 47, 44 or 41 points depending on the opponent's division, and a loss is worth 36, 33, 30 or 27. Then the total is averaged.
Take Creighton Prep: 40.000 over eight games is 320 points. Beat Bellevue West and Bellevue West falls to 4-5 (44%, Division 3), so the win is worth 44, and 364 divided by 9 is 40.444. Lose and Bellevue West is 5-4 (56%, Division 2), so the loss is worth 33, and 353 divided by 9 is 39.222. Other teams' results can push Prep's earlier opponents up a division, which is why its range runs as high as 40.778.
Who's already in, the full bracket projection and the Westside-Millard South fight for the top seed are in the Class A playoff outlook.
Sources
Creighton Preparatory School team center → · Millard West team center → · Kearney team center → · Lincoln North Star team center → · Lincoln Southwest team center → · Lincoln Standing Bear team center → · Bellevue West team center → · Lincoln Southeast team center → · North Platte team center → · Columbus team center → · Omaha Westview team center →
Nebraska football scores and schedules → · Football playoff tracker →