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Class D1 bubble watch: Tri County holds the last wild card, and three district title games swing the line
The Class D1 teams near the ninth wild card, the title games that move it and who's out.
D1 takes seven district champions and nine wild cards. The ninth wild card belongs to Tri County at 39.750, and 14 teams sit between 41.500 and 38.125. Three Week 9 games near the line also decide district titles, so a single result can open a wild-card seat or close one.
Data as of 7:59 a.m. CT Wednesday, Oct. 21, from NSAA's wildcard page. Points haven't changed since the Oct. 19 update. Ranges below run every Week 9 result through NSAA's point formula. They're NEB Preps projections, not official.
Class D1 bubble board
NSAA points · 7:59 a.m. CT Wednesday, Oct. 21 (NSAA wildcard page; points unchanged since the Oct. 19 9:04 a.m. update). Projection—not official seeds.
Current last at-large average: 39.750 · Tri County. Dashed marks compare current averages, not guaranteed qualification. District berths and tiebreakers still apply.
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Open a school for its remaining game and reviewed scenario. Each what-if fixes only one game; all other results can vary. Ranges are not rankings or clinch probabilities. Ties remain ties.
Wisner-Pilger7-1 · Bubble41.500 ptsClinches with a win over Stanton.
2026-10-23 · vs. Stanton (8-0). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 42.444–42.778. With a loss: 40.889–41.222.
Centura6-2 · Bubble41.250 ptsClinches with a win if Alma beats Amherst or Crofton beats Gordon-Rushville.
2026-10-22 · vs. Hastings St. Cecilia (2-6). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 41.222–41.222. With a loss: 40.000–40.000.
Elmwood-Murdock5-3 · Bubble41.000 ptsClinches with a win over Freeman.
2026-10-23 · at Freeman (3-5). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 41.667–42.333. With a loss: 40.111–40.778.
Elkhorn Valley5-3 · Bubble40.625 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 40.6667-41.3333 with a win.
2026-10-22 · at Lutheran High Northeast (1-7). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 40.667–41.333. With a loss: 39.111–39.778.
Ponca5-3 · Bubble40.625 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 41.0000 with a win.
2026-10-23 · at Pender (4-4). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 41.000–41.000. With a loss: 39.778–39.778.
Amherst5-3 · Bubble40.250 ptsClinches with a win over Alma.
2026-10-23 · at Alma (5-3). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 41.000–41.667. With a loss: 39.444–40.111.
Tri County6-2 · Bubble39.750 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 40.2222-40.8889 with a win.
2026-10-23 · vs. Thayer Central (4-4). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 40.222–40.889. With a loss: 39.000–39.667.
Alma5-3 · Bubble39.125 ptsClinches with a win over Amherst.
2026-10-23 · vs. Amherst (5-3). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 40.000–41.000. With a loss: 38.444–39.444.
Pender4-4 · Bubble38.875 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 39.7778 with a win.
2026-10-23 · vs. Ponca (5-3). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 39.778–39.778. With a loss: 38.222–38.222.
Nebraska Christian5-3 · Bubble38.750 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 39.3333-39.6667 with a win. Out with a loss to Tekamah-Herman.
2026-10-23 · vs. Tekamah-Herman (3-5). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 39.333–39.667. With a loss: 37.778–38.111.
Elm Creek4-4 · Bubble38.500 ptsClinches with a win if Amherst beats Alma. Out with a loss if Centura beats Hastings St. Cecilia or Conestoga beats Sutton.
2026-10-23 · vs. Kimball (3-5). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 39.111–39.778. With a loss: 37.556–38.222.
West Holt5-3 · Bubble38.375 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 39.6667-40.6667 with a win.
2026-10-23 · at Hartington-Newcastle (7-1). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 39.667–40.667. With a loss: 38.111–39.111.
Conestoga4-4 · Bubble38.125 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 39.1111-39.7778 with a win.
2026-10-23 · vs. Sutton (6-2). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 39.111–39.778. With a loss: 37.889–38.556.
Thayer Central4-4 · Bubble38.125 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 38.7778-39.7778 with a win.
2026-10-23 · at Tri County (6-2). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 38.778–39.778. With a loss: 37.556–38.556.
Gibbon3-5 · Out37.125 ptsEliminated. Cannot reach the last spot in any Week 9 outcome.
2026-10-23 · at Arcadia/Loup City (1-7). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 37.889–38.556. With a loss: 36.333–37.000.
Qualification evidence: Out in every Week 9 outcome by a district-champion count (pigeonhole) check: at most one title contender per district can take an automatic bid, so enough non-champions are guaranteed to finish above this team's best possible average.
Centennial4-4 · Bubble37.000 ptsA win alone doesn't lock up a spot; it would finish at 38.7778-39.4444 with a win. Out with a loss to Exeter-Milligan-Friend.
2026-10-23 · vs. Exeter-Milligan-Friend (7-1). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 38.778–39.444. With a loss: 37.222–37.889.
Kimball3-5 · Out36.000 ptsEliminated. Cannot reach the last spot in any Week 9 outcome.
2026-10-23 · at Elm Creek (4-4). Kickoff not confirmed in this snapshot.
Final-average range with a win: 36.889–38.222. With a loss: 35.667–37.000.
Qualification evidence: Out in every Week 9 outcome by a district-champion count (pigeonhole) check: at most one title contender per district can take an automatic bid, so enough non-champions are guaranteed to finish above this team's best possible average.
View the three-column points table
| Team | Record | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Wisner-Pilger | 7-1 | 41.500 |
| Centura | 6-2 | 41.250 |
| Elmwood-Murdock | 5-3 | 41.000 |
| Elkhorn Valley | 5-3 | 40.625 |
| Ponca | 5-3 | 40.625 |
| Amherst | 5-3 | 40.250 |
| Tri County | 6-2 | 39.750 |
| Alma | 5-3 | 39.125 |
| Pender | 4-4 | 38.875 |
| Nebraska Christian | 5-3 | 38.750 |
| Elm Creek | 4-4 | 38.500 |
| West Holt | 5-3 | 38.375 |
| Conestoga | 4-4 | 38.125 |
| Thayer Central | 4-4 | 38.125 |
| Gibbon | 3-5 | 37.125 |
| Centennial | 4-4 | 37.000 |
| Kimball | 3-5 | 36.000 |
Win and you're in
Wisner-Pilger (7-1, 41.500) hosts unbeaten Stanton, and a win clinches both a spot and the D1-4 title. Elmwood-Murdock (5-3, 41.000) clinches with a win at Freeman. Amherst (5-3, 40.250) clinches with a win at Alma. Alma (5-3, 39.125) clinches the D1-7 title and a spot by beating Amherst.
Centura (6-2, 41.250) hosts Hastings St. Cecilia on Thursday. A win gets it to exactly 41.222, and it clinches with that win if Alma beats Amherst or Crofton beats Gordon-Rushville.
Inside, but not safe
Elkhorn Valley (5-3, 40.625) at Lutheran High Northeast, Ponca (5-3, 40.625) at Pender and Tri County (6-2, 39.750) vs. Thayer Central are all inside the line, but none of them clinches with a win. Ponca's range is fixed: 41.000 with a win, 39.778 with a loss.
Just outside
Pender (4-4, 38.875) gets Ponca at home. A win gets it to 39.778. Nebraska Christian (5-3, 38.750) is out with a loss to Tekamah-Herman. Elm Creek (4-4, 38.500) hosts Kimball. It clinches with a win if Amherst beats Alma. It's out with a loss if Centura wins or Conestoga beats Sutton.
West Holt (5-3, 38.375) has the biggest upside in the group, 39.667 to 40.667 with a win at Hartington-Newcastle (7-1). Conestoga and Thayer Central (both 4-4, 38.125) and Centennial (4-4, 37.000) are still alive. Centennial is out with a loss to Exeter-Milligan-Friend.
Already out
Gibbon and Kimball are out in every Week 9 outcome, not just with a loss. Each district has only one champion, so enough of the title contenders above them are guaranteed to finish as non-champions above their best possible averages. Fourteen other D1 teams were already out.
How the math works
A win is worth 50, 47, 44 or 41 points depending on the opponent's division, and a loss is worth 36, 33, 30 or 27. Take Centura: 41.250 over eight games is 330 points. Beat St. Cecilia and St. Cecilia is 2-7 (Division 4), so the win is worth 41, and 371 divided by 9 is 41.222. Lose and St. Cecilia is 3-6 (33%, Division 3), so the loss is worth 30, and 360 divided by 9 is 40.000. That's why a win actually lowers Centura's average a hair.
District races and the projected bracket are in the Class D1 playoff outlook.
Sources
Wisner-Pilger team center → · Centura team center → · Elmwood-Murdock team center → · Elkhorn Valley team center → · Ponca team center → · Amherst team center → · Tri County team center → · Alma team center → · Pender team center → · Nebraska Christian team center → · Elm Creek team center → · West Holt team center → · Conestoga team center → · Thayer Central team center → · Centennial team center →
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